Hosts China, Brazil look to lock up berth in quarters

Soccer Betting Lines

09/14/2007 - Wuhan, China (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - China opened its World Cup with a dramatic win over Denmark and would all but lock up a spot in the quarterfinals with a win or a tie against Brazil on Saturday.

China built a two-goal lead against Denmark in the second half Wednesday, but the Danes rallied to tie the game before Xiaoli Song scored in the 88th minute of a 3-2 win.

Brazil also opened with a win Wednesday, defeating New Zealand 5-0.

"It will be a tough match... (China is) also a powerful team," Brazil coach Jorge Barcellos told FIFA's website.

Playing in front of a large crowd in Wuhan on Wednesday, Jie Li and Yan Bi had goals as China jumped out to the two-goal lead. After Denmark equalized in the 87th minute, Song struck less than a minute later.

It was a surprising start from the Chinese, who were expected to struggle in the World Cup, even though they are the hosts.

"I couldn't be happier with the result because it was a must-win match. It was a real slog, but winning has really lifted us," China forward Han Duan said on FIFA's website.

China proved again it is capable of being a force on the world stage, even if repeating its run to the 1999 final is unlikely. A win over Brazil would all but assure the Chinese the top spot in Group D, and put them just three wins from a title.

In addition to being runners-up in 1999, when it lost to the United States on penalty kicks, China finished fourth in 1995 and fifth in 1991. The Chinese were knocked out in the quarterfinals in 2003.

Brazil only led its opener against New Zealand 1-0 at halftime, but there was no doubt which side was better and it was obvious in the second half.

Reigning FIFA Player of the Year Marta scored twice after the break, picking up where she left off in the 2003 Cup when she scored three goals in four games as a 17-year-old.

"The win belongs to the whole team, it wasn't just down to my contribution," Marta told FIFA's website. "Now we're looking to push on for the next game."

Brazil needs a result against China because it plays Denmark, ranked sixth in the world, in its last game on Wednesday.

Even if the Chinese can't solve the Brazilians, they play New Zealand in their last game on Wednesday, and that gives the hosts a great shot to advance.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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