11/14/2008 - Homestead, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mike Skinner captured the pole for tonight's season-ending Ford 200 Truck Series race at the Homestead-Miami Speedway and the final event for Craftsman as the series title sponsor. The No.5 Toyota driver circled the 1.5-mile oval in 32.221 seconds (167.593 m.p.h.)
The pole victory was Skinner's fourth of the season and the 47th of his career, extending his pole record in the series.
"When they brought the spacer plate along, it's now at these big race tracks where everybody is holding it wide open," Skinner said. "And Homestead is one of those race tracks it's hard to hold wide open, and we were able to do it. I guess that's why we're on the pole."
Meanwhile, the battle for the championship will be settled at Homestead as Johnny Benson enters the race with only a three point lead over defending series champion Ron Hornaday, Jr., making it the closest margin heading into the season-finale.
Hornaday, Jr. will start fourth after posting a time of 32.381 seconds.
"We know what we've got to do," Hornaday said. "Knowing Johnny, they've got their truck a lot better, so I'm looking forward to a good race."
If Hornaday captures the title, he will become the series' only four-time and back-to-back champion, as well as NASCAR's oldest national series titleholder at 50 years, four months and 25 days. Ted Musgrave became NASCAR's eldest champion when he won the 2005 Craftsman Truck Series title at 49 years, 11 months and one day.
Benson is aiming for his second NASCAR national series title as he has won the Nationwide championship in 1995.
Benson will roll off four spots behind Hornaday in eighth.
"Our truck is decent but still a little loose right now," he said. "It's a lot better off than it was yesterday. Let's just hope we race well."
Greg Biffle is the only driver to win both a Nationwide and Craftsman Truck Series title.
Benson is the defending winner at Homestead.
Hornaday entered last year's season-finale 29 points behind leader Mike Skinner, but Skinner lost the title when he suffered a flat tire early in the race and then encountered another wheel problem during the mid-stages, resulting in a 35th-place finish. Hornaday came in seventh and ended the year 54 points ahead of Skinner.
Joining Skinner on the outside pole will be Colin Braun (32.225). Sprint Cup regular Kevin Harvick (32.300) will start third.
Craftsman is ending their 14-year sponsorship with the Truck Series at the conclusion of this season. Camping World will serve as the series title sponsor starting in 2009.
The green flag for tonight's race is scheduled to drop around 8:00 p.m. (et).
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Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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