11/28/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Baltimore Ravens first-year head coach John Harbaugh has his foot comfortably set on the proverbial gas pedal now that his team is on track to earn just its second playoff appearance in five years.
Many naysayers pegged Harbaugh to fail before the season started because of his lack of experience as a head coach and years of working solely as an assistant at the NFL level. But so far Harbaugh and the Ravens are 7-4 and inching closer to a playoff berth, with the lowly Cincinnati Bengals on the slate this Sunday afternoon at Paul Brown Stadium.
The Ravens have won five of their last six games to put themselves in control for a Wild Card spot in the AFC playoff race, and defeated the Bengals at home in the season opener on September 7. They can not afford to suffer a letdown this week, because the remainder of the 2008 schedule features tough matchups against Washington, Pittsburgh, Dallas and Jacksonville. Baltimore has beaten the teams it is supposed to, but has experienced trouble with the upper echelon of the league in the Steelers, Colts, Titans and Giants.
Baltimore is coming off an emotional 36-7 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday, in which Harbaugh faced his former mentor Andy Reid for the first time. Harbaugh served as Philadelphia's special teams coordinator/defensive backs coach from 1998-2007. The Ravens remained one game behind the Steelers in the AFC North with the blowout win.
Cincinnati is an abysmal 1-9-1 this season and team chemistry went out the window before training camp even started. Head coach Marvin Lewis has been on the hot seat for many weeks now, and his job security didn't get any better after a 27-10 loss to Pittsburgh at Heinz Field in Week 12.
Lewis has been dealing with an injured Pro Bowl quarterback, a disgruntled wide receiver and one of worst rushing offenses this season. Carson Palmer has played in just four games this year because of a nagging right elbow problem. He has a 69.0 passer rating and has thrown three touchdowns and four interceptions, but backup Ryan Fitzpatrick has fared no better.
Palmer has been ruled out versus Baltimore and may need ligament replacement surgery to correct the problem. His target date to throw again is December 7 against Indianapolis.
Meanwhile, wide receiver Chad Johnson was inactive for last week's game against the Steelers for conduct detrimental to the team, after he reportedly showed up late for an offensive meeting. According to Lewis, Johnson has been fined for his actions but will be available for Sunday's test.
The Bengals, who are 1-3-1 as the host this season, may not win another game with the Colts, Redskins, Browns and Chiefs on the upcoming docket. They have a reasonable shot for a victory against either Cleveland or Kansas City, but that may not be enough to save Lewis' job.
SERIES HISTORY
Baltimore leads the all-time series with Cincinnati, 14-11, including a 17-10 home victory when the teams met in Week 1. Prior to that victory, the Ravens were just 1-6 in their previous seven meetings against the Bengals, including a home-and-home sweep last season. Cincinnati earned a 27-20 triumph at Paul Brown Stadium in Week 1 of 2007, and a 21-7 triumph in Charm City in Week 10.
Lewis is 7-4 against the Ravens, the team for which he served as defensive coordinator from 1996 through 2001. Harbaugh is 1-0 against both Lewis and the Bengals as a head coach.
WHEN THE RAVENS HAVE THE BALL
Ravens rookie quarterback Joe Flacco (1,996 passing yards, 10 TD, 9 INT) has passed for 200 yards or more just twice in the last six games, but has nine touchdowns to just two interceptions in that stretch. Flacco threw for 183 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Eagles, even though he was hurried quite often and sacked three times. Flacco, who has been sacked nine times in the past four weeks, is aiming for his seventh straight game with a scoring pass for the NFL's 29th-rated pass attack. He may be without offensive lineman Jared Gaither and Adam Terry on Sunday. Gaither is nursing a shoulder injury, although he played most of the game last week, while Terry left the contest with a concussion. Tackle Willie Anderson played despite an ankle injury. Flacco will need time to hit his favorite target, wideout Derrick Mason (56 receptions, 720 yards, 2 TD). Mason leads the team in catches and receiving yards, while Mark Clayton (23 receptions, 2 TD) is also a deep threat. Clayton had two catches for 76 yards and a score on Sunday. Mason is ranked second in the NFL with 504 receptions since 2003.
The Bengals match up well against Baltimore's passing attack and are ranked 15th against opposing aerial assaults in 2008. Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger threw one touchdown pass last week against a secondary playing without safety Chinedum Ndukwe (foot) and cornerback Johnathan Joseph (foot). Ndukwe (52 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) is questionable this week and Joseph (42 tackles, 1 INT) was placed on the season-ending injured reserve list because of a foot injury sustained against the Eagles the week prior. Joseph is the team's 13th player on IR. The Bengals then signed cornerback Simeon Castille to the active roster from the practice squad to take his place. Cornerback David Jones (36 tackles) suffered a knee injury against the Steelers, but is expected to play Sunday. Free safety Marvin White (61 tackles, 1 INT) and cornerback Leon Hall (45 tackles) are Lewis' top players in the secondary and will be responsible for containing Mason, Clayton and tight end Todd Heap.
Harbaugh's backfield has been crowded with Willis McGahee, Le'Ron McClain and Ray Rice sharing the load in Baltimore. McGahee (489 rushing yards, 5 TD) leads the Ravens in carries (141) and yards, but touched the football just seven times for eight yards versus Philadelphia. Harbaugh went with the hot hand in McClain (459 rushing yards, 6 TD), who had 88 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. McClain is a bruising runner who makes plays with his powerful legs and low center of gravity. He has helped the Ravens to the fourth-best rushing offense in the NFL this season. Rice (382 rushing yards) has yet to reach the end zone, but is very shifty and makes defenders miss. All three will get a shot this Sunday for Baltimore, which has scored at least 27 points in each of its last five wins. The running back rotation comes in handy wearing down defenses during the fourth quarter, as the Ravens have outscored opponents 77-0 in the final period.
Cincinnati linebacker and leading tackler Dhani Jones (78 tackles, 1 INT) will be busy against the Ravens. Linebackers Rashad Jeanty (67 tackles) and Brandon Johnson (45 tackles, 1 INT) combined for 14 stops against the Steelers. The Ravens should have an easy time finding holes against a weak Bengals defensive front highlighted by end Robert Geathers (38 tackles, 2.5 sacks), tackle Domata Peko (48 tackles, 0.5 sacks) and end Frostee Rucker (24 tackles, 1 sack). All three can make a difference up front, but haven't had much of an incentive to do so. Defensive end Antwan Odom (20 tackles, 2 sacks) has missed the past two games with a shoulder problem and is listed as questionable versus the Ravens.
WHEN THE BENGALS HAVE THE BALL
Fitzpatrick (1,218 passing yards, 6 TD, 7 INT) has thrown for just 200 yards or more once this season and passed for 168 yards with a touchdown and an interception last week against the Steelers. He doesn't have the strongest arm but understands the offense very well. Fitzpatrick has completed more than 60 percent of his passes in six of seven starts this season, and owns four touchdowns with one pick in his previous three games at home. His top target has been T.J. Houshmandzadeh (77 receptions, 746 yards, 4 TD), who is coming off a poor showing against Pittsburgh. Houshmandzadeh caught four passes for 20 yards in Week 12, just one week after posting a season-high 149 yards and a score on 12 receptions in a tie with the Eagles on November 16. He has six career touchdowns against Baltimore. Houshmandzadeh is also only 23 catches away from becoming just the eighth player in NFL history to record consecutive 100-catch seasons, and the first in five years. Johnson (41 receptions, 4 TD) is expected to be back in the lineup, unless he has another run-in with the coaching staff. He missed the Steelers game for insubordination and is aiming for his 103rd straight game with a catch. Chris Henry is also at Fitzpatrick's disposal, but likely won't see much action for the Bengals' 30th-rated pass attack (159.5 ypg).
Baltimore is known for having one of the best defenses in the NFL and proved it against the Eagles by recording four interceptions. The Ravens dominated so much that the Eagles benched star quarterback Donovan McNabb in the second half after he passed for just 59 yards with a pair of interceptions. Backup Kevin Kolb was immediately exposed by the Ravens' vaunted defense, as he threw for 73 yards with a pair of picks, one of which was returned an NFL-record 108 yards for a touchdown by All-Pro safety Ed Reed (25 tackles, 3 INT). Reed ended with two interceptions on the day and leads the NFL with 37 picks since 2002. Cornerbacks Samari Rolle (13 tackles, 3 INT) and Fabian Washington (20 tackles, INT) had the other interceptions for Baltimore's No. 3 pass defense. The Ravens lead the NFL with 19 interceptions. Veteran defensive end Trevor Pryce (21 tackles) had a half-sack against the Eagles and is second on the team with 4 1/2 this season.
The Bengals are terrible at running the football, and their 31st overall ranking in the NFL proves that. There have been next to zero running backs this season that have enjoyed success against Baltimore's stingy defense, and history probably won't change with Cedric Benson running the football. Benson (318 rushing yards, 1 TD), a castoff from Chicago, took over the load weeks ago for unproductive runners Chris Perry and Kenny Watson. Benson was held to 35 yards on the ground against a tough Steelers defense and may end up with the same amount, if not less, this week. Cincinnati's offensive line is banged up, as starting tackle Levi Jones (back) and first-string guard Andrew Whitworth (ankle) are both listed as questionable for Sunday's game. Guard Scott Kooistra (knee) is also banged up.
Not too many teams have been able to run the ball against Baltimore, as evidenced by its streak of 30 straight games of holding opposing running backs under the 100-yard rushing mark. Nose tackle Haloti Ngata (39 tackles, 1 sack, 2 INT) uses his bulky frame as a tool to plug the running lanes and can collapse the pocket as well. With Pryce, Ngata and defensive end Justin Bannan (36 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) up front wreaking havoc, Baltimore's linebackers are able to roam free and make plays. Future Hall of Fame middle linebacker Ray Lewis is one of the best in the business and leads the team in tackles once again. Lewis (77 tackles, 1 sack, 3 INT) has three interceptions in his last three games. Baltimore allowed just 86 yards on the ground last week because of fellow linebackers Terrell Suggs (51 tackles, 5 sacks, 2 INT), Bart Scott (52 tackles, 1 sack) and Jarret Johnson (42 tackles, 3.5 sacks). All three combined for 13 tackles against Philly, while Johnson had 1 1/2 sacks. He has 2 1/2 quarterback takedowns over the past two games.
FANTASY FOCUS
Flacco has been impressive for fantasy owners this season and is an excellent pickup for those desperate for a quarterback this week. McGahee is still the top dog among Baltimore running backs, but either one of three can find the end zone on Sunday under Harbaugh's committee approach. Mason is the best the Ravens have to offer at wideout, and give the Baltimore defense a shot this week against a weak and dysfunctional Cincinnati offense. Benson, Chad Johnson and Houshmandzadeh are all starters in most leagues. Benson is a risky choice against a tough defense, but he was able to shred Jacksonville's stop unit a few weeks ago. Keep an eye out for Johnson, since his erratic behavior may cost him another game.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Sunday's matchup against the lowly Bengals on the road could be a trap game for Baltimore, which must avoid looking past Cincinnati for a showdown with Washington on December 7. The Ravens are currently in position to make the playoffs, but a loss to the AFC North-rival Bengals could dash all hopes for Harbaugh's club. Baltimore will try to win the game with its defense, while Flacco is expected to have a breakthrough performance against a balky Bengals secondary. Cincinnati must play like it did in a tie against Philadelphia a few weeks ago in order to have even a chance at knocking off a suddenly-hot Ravens squad.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Ravens 27, Bengals 13
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MySportsbook.com and Kentucky Derby Offer Bonuses
The 2008 Kentucky Derby has announced a $1-million bonus for this weekend’s 134th ‘Run for the Roses’ and MySportsbook.com is doing the same.
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According to MySportsbook.com, the favorites for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky are: Curlin (+250); Street Sense (+500); Scat Daddy (+700); Circular Quay (+750); and Nobiz Like Shobiz (+800).
Derby organizers announced this week that there will be a $1-million bonus at the 2007 Kentucky Derby odds if the first-place horse wins by more than 6 1/2 lengths – the margin of Barbaro's victory last year. The bonus would be divided Saturday among the winning trainer, jockey, owner and a charity, with each receiving 25 percent. The designated charity is the Barbaro Memorial Fund.
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Asmussen dismissed suggestions that Curlin's lack of racing experience could keep him from the winner's circle.
”He exudes confidence and he's got a great presence about him,'' the trainer said. ''I feel great about the position we're in. He's not worried about anything, why should you be?''
The Kentucky Derby is at 4:04 p.m., ET Saturday.
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The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on college football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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