Wake Forest and Baylor battle in Waco

Cfootball Betting Lines

08/27/2008 - Waco, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Art Briles era begins in Waco this Thursday, as the Baylor Bears host the 23rd-ranked Wake Forest Demon Deacons in the season opener for both programs.

After stumbling to a 3-9 finish, including a season-ending eight-game losing streak in 2007, Baylor decided it was time for a change and replaced head coach Guy Morriss with Briles. The former Houston head man, Briles inherits a program that hasn't posted a winning campaign since 1995 and is coming off an 0-8 showing in the Big 12 a year ago. Turning a program around though, is something Briles is familiar with, as he took a struggling Houston program and made it into a force in Conference USA. During his five-year stay at Houston, Briles took the Cougars to four bowl games and he hopes for that same kind of success at Baylor.

With a nationally-ranked opponent coming to town for the opener, Briles will have a chance to make great first impression. Wake Forest though, is a tough and talented team and in the midst of its most successful football period in school history. The Demon Deacons have gone 20-7 over the last two seasons and that is quite an accomplishment considering they had never won more than 15 games in consecutive years prior to the 2006-07 campaigns. Last season, Wake boasted a 9-4 mark, including a Meineke Car Care Bowl win over Connecticut, and with several key starters back from that team, head coach Jim Grobe has the pieces to compete for another ACC title.

Thursday's game will mark the fifth all-time meeting between Wake and Baylor, with the Bears winning each of the prior four encounters. The teams however, haven't met since the Bears notched a 31-0 victory to open the 1961 season.

The Deacons weren't exactly an offensive juggernaut last season, averaging just 340.4 total ypg, but with the return of starting quarterback Riley Skinner and tailback Josh Adams this unit should be much more dangerous. As a sophomore last season, Skinner led the nation with a completion percentage of 72.4 percent, although he threw just 12 touchdowns against 13 interceptions. Making better decisions will be a big key to Skinner's and the team's success in 2008 and Grobe feels like he showed improvement in this area during the spring.

"What I've seen of Riley this past spring was a much more mature quarterback, a guy that is pretty focused on taking care of the football, making first downs."

Finding a reliable target however, could prove difficult, as Wake lost three of its top four outlets from last season. Senior WR Chip Brinkman is the top returning option, but that isn't saying much considering he caught just 27 balls in 2007.

The ground attack though, should be solid once again with Adams getting the majority of the carries. As a freshman last season, Adams was outstanding, rushing for 953 yards and 11 TDs, helping him land ACC Rookie of the Year honors. Adams has good speed and vision and he will need to utilize both of those assets to compensate for an offensive line that was decimated by graduation.

On the defensive side of the ball is where the Deacons should dominate, as nine starters are welcomed back from a unit that limited opponents to 22.2 ppg and 340.5 total ypg a season ago. The secondary is the strength of this unit thanks to the return of safety Chip Vaughn and cornerback Alphonso Smith. Last season, Vaughn led the team with 105 tackles and 14 PBUs, while Smith earned Second-Team All-American honors after notching a school-record eight interceptions.

The linebacking corps returns intact and is highlighted by Aaron Curry, who recorded 99 tackles, 10 TFLs and three sacks in 2007. He also picked off four passes, returning three for TDs.

The defensive front isn't nearly as set, although nose tackle Boo Robinson is a load (6-2, 326) and is coming off a 2007 campaign that saw him notch 26 tackles and three sacks.

The Bears should see an improvement on the offensive side of the ball with the hiring of Briles, who brings with him a high-octane, pass-happy approach that was successful at Houston. While the offensive scheme is set, the athlete in charge of running the show is a bit more uncertain. Any one of three QBs could see significant playing time, including returning starter Blake Szymanski who threw for more than 2,800 yards and 22 TDs a year ago. Szymanski however, was picked off 18 times last season and his poor decision-making left the door open this spring for former Miami Hurricane Kirby Freeman and highly-touted freshman Robert Griffin, whom both could step into the starting role under center.

"They're all really good. We can win with them," Briles has said of his quarterbacks. "I thought all the quarterbacks played really well. I'm proud of the way they led through the spring. All three of those guys are good players, really good players."

Whomever does end up under center will have the benefit of throwing to a solid corps of receivers that includes junior speedster David Gettis (407receving yards) and junior TE Justin Akers (43 catches). Both stand at least 6-4 and will provide big targets downfield.

The biggest area in need of a turnaround for this unit is the ground attack, which averaged a mere 77.8 ypg to rank 113th in the country last season. Sophomore Jay Finley is expected to see a majority of the carries and he has the tools to compete for a successful campaign. An offensive line that welcomes back four starters, should also help Finley shine is his first season as a starter.

Defensively, Baylor was abysmal last season, allowing 461.6 total ypg and 37.0 ppg, so there is no place to go but up for this unit. Six starters are welcomed back from last season and with another year of experience and a new defensive philosophy, this unit should be improved. Linebacker Joe Pawelek and free safety Jordan Lake are the leaders of this defense and they figure to play a big part in the unit's turnaround attempt. Lake recorded 120 tackles and two interceptions last season, while Pawelek has posted 185 tackles the last two years.

Along the defensive line, tackle Vincent Rhodes and his 305-pound frame should help stop the run, while 6-6 end Jason Lamb will once again provide the team with a solid pass rusher after logging five sacks in 2007.

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Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

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