08/14/2008 - Oakland, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ben Zobrist hit the go-ahead RBI double in the seventh and the Rays took the second test of their three-game series against the Athletics, 3-2, at McAfee Coliseum.
"(Zobrist)'s at bats have gotten better. There's more force in his swing," Rays manager Joe Maddon said. "He's done a great job. He's been valuable for us."
Andy Sonnanstine (12-6) threw his third consecutive quality start, throwing six innings on just two runs and six hits. He struck out six and walked one in the win. The Rays bullpen pitched three scoreless innings, including Troy Percival's 27th save of the season.
"(Sonnanstine) had really good stuff tonight," Maddon said. "His last two outings are as good as I've seen him in a long time. He's always been a winner."
Eric Hinske finished the day 3-for-3 with a homer while Carlos Pena added another home run to give Tampa Bay its sixth win in eight games.
Justin Duchscherer (10-8) lost his third straight decision, and the team lost its sixth consecutive game in which the righty has pitched. He finished the day after 6 1/3 innings, giving up three runs on six hits while striking out a career-high eight and walking one.
Eric Patterson knocked in two runs after being called up earlier Wednesday from Triple-A Sacramento. Mark Ellis and Bobby Crosby added two hits apiece in the loss, Oakland's 13th in 15 games.
The Rays took the lead in the seventh. Hinske led off with a single, and two batters later Gabe Gross reached on an infield single, moving the runner to second.
Justin Ruggiano pinch-ran for Hinske, and Jerry Blevins came on in relief of Duchscherer. Zobrist was the first batter Blevins faced, and he laced a double down the left field line, scoring Ruggiano and giving Tampa Bay a 3-2 lead.
Jack Cust led off the Oakland ninth by drawing a walk. Rajai Davis came in to pinch-run and was quickly erased as he was gunned down attempting to steal second. Crosby popped out and after Emil Brown walked, Kurt Suzuki popped out to second to end the game.
Tampa Bay added home runs in both the first and second innings for an early 2-0 lead. Pena's 22nd homer of the year with two outs in the first accounted for the first run, and Hinske's 17th of the season to lead off the second provided the second run.
The Athletics came back to tie the game in the fifth. Crosby led off with a double, and Jack Hannahan singled to put runners on the corners. After Suzuki walked to load the bases, Patterson singled down the right field line to score Crosby and Hannahan, tying the game.
Game Notes
Tampa Bay leads the season series 5-3...Before the game the Athletics placed Ryan Sweeney on the 15-day disabled list with a sprained right thumb. The team replaced Sweeney on the roster with Patterson...Oakland third baseman Eric Chavez had successful surgery to repair his right shoulder Wednesday. The six-time Gold Glove winner should make a full recovery after six months.
<< Izturis leaves after injuring thumb
Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim shortstop Maicer
Izturis left Wednesday's contest against the Seattle Mariners in the top of
the ninth with an injury to his thumb.
Yuniesky Betancourt hit a grounder towards
<< Oklahoma City
Acquired forward Joe Smith from Cleveland and forward Desmond Mason from Milwaukee in exchange for forward Adrian Griffin and guard Luke Ridnour.
<< Blazers' G Roy to undergo surgery
Portland, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Portland Trail Blazers guard Brandon Roy will
have arthroscopic knee surgery on Thursday to repair a tear in the meniscus of
his left knee, the club announced Wednesday.
An MRI taken Tuesday revealed the tear
<< Hawpe, Rox edge D'Backs
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brad Hawpe clubbed a two-run homer in the bottom
of the eighth inning and the Colorado Rockies withstood a ninth-inning charge
from the Arizona Diamondbacks to hang on for a 6-5 win in the middle
install
Brewers extend winning streak to eight, crush Padres >>
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - CC Sabathia threw seven effective innings and
Corey Hart went 3-for-5 with three runs batted in to help Milwaukee tie a
season high with its eighth consecutive win, a 7-1 victory over San Diego.
The Bre
Balentien gives M's come-from-behind, 12-inning win over Angels >>
Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Wladimir Balentien hit the go-ahead three-run
homer in the 12th inning as the Seattle Mariners gutted out a 10-7 victory to
earn a two-game split with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
Justin Speier (1-5)
Let's settle arguments on the track >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Trash talk is not a common feature in
horse racing. The humans involved in the Sport of Kings don't usually bad-
mouth the other people in the sport. They talk about their horses and find
reasons
CFL Previews - Week 8 (August 14-15) >>
Toronto, Ontario (Sportsbook Betting Lines) -
HAMILTON TIGER-CATS (2-5) AT WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS (1-6)
DATE & TIME: Thursday, August 14, 8 p.m. (et).
GAME NOTES: It's not even the midpoint of the regular season and already the
Winnipeg Blue
Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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